Staying informed is the smartest move you can make in today’s shifting real estate landscape — and this month’s update is designed to keep you a step ahead. We’re breaking down the latest national trends, Orange County–specific insights, and what rising rates and evolving inventory really mean for homeowners and buyers right here at home.
Whether you’re preparing to buy, thinking about selling, or simply staying in tune with the market, our goal is to bring you clarity, perspective, and confidence.
We’re grateful to be your resource. Let’s navigate this market together: strategically, thoughtfully, and always with your goals in mind.
— Regan Beegle & George Hanold
🏆 Voted Best Real Estate Company in Orange County
The Big Story
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Housing is slowly becoming more affordable, as interest rates slowly creep down over time.
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As of the time this is written, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.22%, representing a drastic decline from earlier this year.
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Inventory levels are holding steady, despite slight increases in transaction volume.
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According to the CME FedWatch tool, we’re looking at a 65% chance that the Fed cuts rates by another quarter point in their December meeting.
Housing payments have become slightly more affordable as interest rates tick down
Median monthly P&I payments are on the decline, as one might expect when interest rates are falling. This, of course, is great for new buyers that are in the market for a home. If we see an influx of new buyers, there is the possibility that we might see a less stagnant market when the spring time rush comes in early 2026. Unfortunately though, interest rates are still much too high for many people who locked in rates in the 2-3% range to justify moving to a new home and taking on a considerably higher mortgage payment each month. We likely won’t see these homes/homeowners enter the market until rates come down substantially more than they already have.
The Fed announced yet another quarter point cut to the federal funds rate
In the Fed’s October FOMC meeting, they decided to cut the federal funds rate by another quarter point, making the overnight interest rate range between 3.75% and 4.00%. This led mortgage rates to fall in unison, which is great news for prospective buyers and recent buyers that made the bet that they would be able to refinance at a lower rate sooner rather than later. It’ll be important to look at the economic data that’s released once the government shutdown ends, as this data is what the Fed bases their interest rate decisions on. Once we receive some more clarity regarding economic data, then we’ll have a better idea of whether or not to expect a rate cut in December.
Inventories remain strong despite an increase in transaction volume
Inventories have remained incredibly strong throughout this year, as inventory growth has consistently outstripped existing home sale growth. This past month, we saw inventories grow by 13.97% on a year-over-year basis, while there were only 6.01% more existing homes sold. It’ll be interesting to see where inventories go over the course of the winter, since they usually decline meaningfully.
We may have another rate cut in the not-so-distant future
As we mentioned above, we might have another rate cut ahead of us, as CME’s FedWatch predicts a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed’s December meeting. However, it is worth noting that once the government shutdown-related “economic data moratorium” that we’ve been facing is lifted, this probability can shift very rapidly. If economic data is considerably better or worse than anticipated, then this may change how the Fed looks at the cutting cycle that we’re currently in. This means it’ll be very important to keep your eye out for key inflation and labor data once it eventually comes out.
All of this is just what we’re seeing at a national level, though. As we all know, real estate is incredibly localized, which is why you should take a look at your local lowdown next.
The Local Lowdown
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Median sale prices show minimal year-over-year growth with a 0.27% increase in September 2025, suggesting the market has reached a near-equilibrium pricing level.
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Inventory levels continue their seasonal decline with a 6.80% month-over-month decrease in October, though still maintaining a 19.31% year-over-year increase.
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The median listing is now spending 33 days on the market, representing a dramatic 50% increase compared to the same time last year.
Orange County Prices Hover Near Break-Even Territory
Orange County's housing market is showing signs of reaching a pricing equilibrium after months of volatility. September 2025 saw the median single-family home selling for $1,401,250, representing a minimal 0.27% increase compared to September 2024's $1,397,450. This near-flat year-over-year comparison represents a significant departure from the double-digit growth rates seen throughout much of 2024. The median price also demonstrated modest month-over-month growth of 1.17% from August's $1,385,000, suggesting that while downward pressure persists, prices may be stabilizing around current levels. This equilibrium point appears to reflect where buyer demand and seller expectations finally meet after months of adjustment to the new market realities.
Inventory Continues Seasonal Retreat as Fall Market Takes Hold
Orange County's housing inventory continues its seasonal normalization pattern as we move deeper into fall. The latest data for October 2025 shows 4,251 single-family homes on the market, representing a 6.80% month-over-month decline from September's 4,561 homes. This marks the third consecutive month of declining inventory levels, demonstrating that typical seasonal patterns have reasserted themselves after the extraordinary spring and summer buildup. However, the market still maintains a 19.31% year-over-year increase compared to October 2024's 3,563 homes, meaning buyers continue to enjoy significantly more options than they had last year. While the inventory trajectory is clearly downward from summer peaks, the market remains well-supplied with nearly 700 more homes available than this time last year.
Market Pace Reaches Unprecedented Lows as Selling Times Hit New Record
The trend toward dramatically extended selling times has reached its most extreme point yet, fundamentally redefining what constitutes normal market pace. The median single-family home in Orange County now sits on the market for 33 days before selling, representing an extraordinary 50% increase from September 2024's 22 days. This also reflects a slight 1.54% month-over-month increase from August's 32.5-day average, indicating that selling times have essentially plateaued at these elevated levels. This extended timeline has become perhaps the most telling indicator of the current market dynamics, demonstrating that buyers have taken full control of the transaction pace and are leveraging their position to conduct thorough due diligence without competitive pressure. For sellers, this means adjusting expectations to account for timelines that are more than double what they were experiencing just one year ago.
Orange County Returns to Balanced Market Territory
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a sellers' market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
With 3.0 months of supply inventory in September 2025, Orange County has returned to balanced market territory for the first time in several months. This represents a significant 6.25% month-over-month decrease from August's 3.2 months and, remarkably, a 3.23% year-over-year decrease from September 2024's 3.1 months. This shift toward balanced conditions suggests that the market correction has largely run its course, with supply and demand reaching a new equilibrium. While this represents a more neutral environment than the strong buyers' market conditions of earlier in the year, the extended selling times indicate that buyers still maintain meaningful negotiating leverage. Both buyers and sellers should recognize that this balanced state represents neither the seller-dominated conditions of 2024 nor the buyer-dominated conditions of summer 2025, requiring both parties to approach negotiations with realistic expectations.
