-
Median sale prices maintain modest positive growth with a 0.72% year-over-year increase in July 2025, though prices declined significantly from June's peak.
-
Inventory levels show signs of stabilization with a slight month-over-month decline, though the 40.61% year-over-year increase demonstrates the market remains heavily oversupplied.
-
The median listing is now spending 28 days on the market, representing a substantial 40% increase compared to the same time last year.
Orange County Prices Pull Back Despite Positive Year-Over-Year Growth
Orange County's housing market continues to show mixed signals in its pricing dynamics. July 2025 saw the median single-family home selling for $1,400,000, representing a modest 0.72% increase compared to July 2024's $1,390,000. However, this positive year-over-year comparison masks a significant month-over-month decline of 4.76% from June's $1,470,000 peak. This pullback suggests that while the market maintains slight year-over-year gains, the recent price recovery may have been short-lived as the abundant inventory continues to pressure pricing power. The volatility in month-to-month pricing indicates sellers are still adjusting to the new market realities where buyer leverage has fundamentally shifted the negotiation dynamics.
Inventory Shows First Signs of Seasonal Stabilization
For the first time in months, Orange County's inventory levels showed a slight retreat from their recent peaks. The latest data for August 2025 shows 4,917 single-family homes on the market, representing a modest 0.71% month-over-month decline from July's 4,952 homes. While this represents the first monthly decrease in quite some time, the market remains heavily oversupplied with a substantial 40.61% year-over-year increase compared to August 2024's 3,497 homes. This slight monthly pullback may indicate normal seasonal patterns are beginning to assert themselves, but the market fundamentally remains tilted heavily in favor of buyers with nearly 1,500 more homes available than this time last year.
Market Pace Continues to Slow as Extended Timelines Become the New Normal
The trend toward longer selling times continues to accelerate, with buyers clearly taking full advantage of their improved market position. The median single-family home in Orange County now sits on the market for 28 days before selling, representing a significant 40% increase from July 2024's 20 days. This also reflects a notable 7.69% month-over-month increase from June's 26-day average, indicating that the slowdown in market pace is continuing to intensify rather than stabilize. This extended timeline has become one of the most dramatic shifts in market behavior, giving buyers unprecedented time to conduct thorough due diligence, compare multiple properties, and negotiate from a position of strength that was unimaginable during the rapid-fire conditions of previous years.
Orange County Maintains Strong Buyers' Market Conditions
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a sellers' market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
With 3.3 months of supply inventory in July 2025, Orange County continues to operate as a buyers' market, though showing a slight moderation from June's 3.4 months. This represents a 2.94% month-over-month decrease but still maintains a substantial 32% year-over-year increase from July 2024's 2.5 months of supply. The market has now consistently maintained buyers' market conditions for several consecutive months, providing purchasers with significant leverage in negotiations. While the slight monthly decrease in MSI suggests some seasonal normalization may be occurring, the market remains fundamentally tilted in favor of buyers, requiring sellers to remain realistic about both pricing expectations and selling timelines in this new environment.
