June 2026 - Orange County Market Update

The Big Story

• Median home sale prices surged past last year's levels in May, as the spring selling season continues to build momentum.
• Inventory levels have climbed back to where they were at this time last year, giving buyers more options heading into the summer.
• Existing home sales posted their strongest year-over-year gain in quite some time, signaling that buyers are finally coming off the sidelines.

The spring rally is in full swing

The spring selling season has delivered exactly the kind of price action that sellers were hoping for. The median home sold for $429,300 in May, representing a 2.83% month-over-month increase and a 1.32% year-over-year gain. This marks the fourth consecutive month of month-over-month price increases since the market bottomed out at $395,000 in January, and it's the highest median sale price we've seen since last summer. Helping fuel this rally is the fact that mortgage rates have come back down a bit after their April spike, settling at 6.37% in May, which is 5.77% lower than the 6.76% we were seeing at this time last year. That said, the median monthly P&I payment came in at $2,201, which is only 2.57% lower than the $2,259 the median homeowner was paying a year ago. The affordability gap is narrowing, as rising prices are beginning to eat into the savings that lower rates have provided. It'll be worth keeping a close eye on this dynamic as we move deeper into the summer months.

Inventory is back to last year's levels just in time for the summer rush

After spending much of the winter and early spring playing catch-up, inventory levels have finally returned to where they were at this time last year. In May, there were 1,550,000 homes available for sale, representing a 0.65% year-over-year increase and a 3.33% month-over-month gain. While the year-over-year increase is modest, it's encouraging to see inventory keeping pace with last year's levels, especially considering how tight supply has been for the past several years. On the new listings front, 474,976 new listings hit the market in May, representing a 2.12% year-over-year increase, though this was a slight 0.45% decline from April's pace. This tells us that sellers are still actively listing their homes, but the initial spring rush may be tapering off just a bit. If inventory continues to build through June and July, buyers heading into the summer could find themselves with the most options they've had in years.

Buyers are back, and they're buying

Perhaps the most encouraging data point this month is the significant uptick in existing home sales. In May, 4,170,000 homes changed hands, representing a 3.22% increase on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. This is a meaningful shift from the sluggish sales figures we've been tracking over the past several months, and it suggests that the combination of lower mortgage rates and growing inventory is finally pulling buyers off the sidelines. It's also worth noting that this is the highest existing home sales figure we've seen since December, when the market saw its seasonal year-end push. If this momentum carries through the summer, we could be looking at one of the more active selling seasons we've seen in recent years. Of course, the big wildcard here is mortgage rates. If rates continue to decline, it could add even more fuel to the fire. But if they tick back up, as they did in April, it could pump the brakes on what has been a very promising start to the summer.

The tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continues

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

Right now, the national market finds itself in an interesting position. Inventory is growing, but existing home sales are growing right along with it, which means the months of supply on the market hasn't shifted dramatically in either direction. The fact that both supply and demand are ticking up simultaneously tells us that we're in a relatively balanced market at the national level. However, the direction of mortgage rates over the next couple of months will likely determine which way the scale tips. If rates continue their downward trajectory, demand could outpace supply, pushing us back toward a seller's market. On the other hand, if rates climb again, inventory could pile up, giving buyers the upper hand. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

• Median sale price appreciation accelerated in April, with the median single-family home selling for 3.71% more than it did a year ago.
• For the first time in quite a while, inventory levels are actually lower than they were a year ago, with 2.60% fewer active listings on the market in May.
• Listings continue to move at last year's pace, with the median listing spending just 22 days on the market in April.

Orange County sale prices are heating up alongside the spring weather

After a rocky start to 2026, Orange County's median sale price has now posted back-to-back months of year-over-year growth, and the momentum is building. The median single-family home sold for $1,470,000 in April, representing a 3.71% year-over-year increase and the highest median sale price we've seen since June 2025. This is a significant acceleration from March's 1.21% gain and a world away from the declines we saw in January and February. It would appear that the spring buying season is in full effect, and buyers are willing to pay a premium for the right property. With demand clearly ramping up, it will be interesting to see whether this pricing momentum can carry through the summer months.

A notable shift: inventory dips below last year's levels for the first time

In a meaningful departure from the trend we've been tracking for the better part of the past year, inventory levels in Orange County have actually dipped below where they were at this time last year. In the month of May, there were 4,341 active single-family home listings on the market, representing a 2.60% decrease on a year-over-year basis. This is a notable shift, as we had been consistently seeing year-over-year inventory increases throughout 2025 and into early 2026. On a month-over-month basis, inventory did climb by 8.77%, which is perfectly normal for this time of year as sellers continue to list heading into the summer. However, the fact that the overall level of inventory is now running below where it was last year suggests that demand is absorbing supply at a healthy clip, and the days of dramatically elevated inventory may be behind us.

Listings continue to move at a brisk, steady pace

The median single-family home listing in Orange County spent 22 days on the market in April, which is perfectly flat on a year-over-year basis and just a modest 4.76% increase on a month-over-month basis from March's 21 days. This consistency is quite remarkable when you consider the swings we've seen throughout the cycle. For perspective, listings were sitting for 35 days just three months ago in January before the spring market kicked into gear. The fact that days on market has now settled into the low-to-mid 20s for three consecutive months signals that the market has found a healthy rhythm, with well-priced listings continuing to attract buyers quickly.

Orange County remains a seller's market as demand heats up

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

 As of April, Orange County has 2.9 months of supply on the market, keeping it in seller's market territory for the second consecutive month. This represents a 6.45% decline on a year-over-year basis, which is further evidence that demand is outpacing supply heading into the busiest time of the year. After briefly crossing into buyers' market territory during the first two months of 2026, the spring surge in demand has pulled the market firmly back in favor of sellers. With inventory now running below last year's levels and listings moving quickly, sellers are in a strong position heading into the summer.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Newport Beach?

If you are considering buying or selling in Newport Beach, strategy matters, especially in today’s luxury coastal market.

Reach out to the team at Times Real Estate CA to discuss your goals and explore opportunities in Newport Heights and throughout coastal Orange County.

Regan Beegle
949-836-5480
[email protected]

George Hanold V
949-836-5479
[email protected]

🏆 Voted #1 Real Estate Team in Orange County